A Nigerian developer explains why Kigali beats Lagos for patient capital

Import substitution has been the single most reliable route to an African fortune. Building domestic capacity for something a country previously imported — cement, fertiliser, refined fuel, packaged food — captures an existing market rather than creating one, and governments have historically protected those who attempt it.

Scale follows population, not GDP per head. Nigeria, Egypt and Ethiopia offer consumer markets large enough that thin margins compound into enormous businesses. Telecoms and consumer goods fortunes across the continent rest on serving very large numbers of people very cheaply.

Access and licensing matter more than in mature economies. Ports, spectrum, mining rights and banking licences are gatekept, and the ability to secure and hold them is itself a competitive moat — one reason African wealth concentrates among a relatively small number of long-established groups.

Capital is increasingly staying home. A generation of technology founders in Lagos, Nairobi and Cairo is now raising internationally while building locally, creating the continent’s first meaningful cohort of fortunes made from software rather than steel.